Layoff notices in Sweden 2020–2025: levels, consequences and what to do on day one

Recognise yourself in ten seconds

A varsel is a formal early warning that an employer in Sweden may need to make staff redundant for operational reasons. It does not automatically mean you will lose your job, but it does mean the employer believes dismissals may become necessary and that the process has formally begun.

If at least five people in the same county risk being dismissed within a 90-day period, the employer must notify the Swedish Public Employment Service (Arbetsförmedlingen). The point is to give the agency, the union and the employer time to prepare support and joint measures.

For you as an individual, the most important things to grasp immediately are two. A layoff notice is not the same thing as a dismissal. And the sooner you act, the more control you keep over what happens next.

The picture in numbers, 2020 to 2025

Layoff-notice levels in Sweden have swung sharply during the period 2020 to 2025. The pandemic pushed numbers up very quickly. A couple of calmer years followed, before economic uncertainty, higher interest rates and squeezed markets pushed numbers up again in several industries.

The pandemic in 2020 produced a historic peak. Hotels, restaurants, retail, transport and tourism were hit particularly hard when demand collapsed almost overnight. At the same time, short-time work schemes meant that not every notice ended in actual dismissals.

During 2021 and 2022, the numbers fell back. In many parts of the economy attention shifted from redundancies to recruitment shortages, especially in tech, healthcare and other skill-intensive fields.

From the second half of 2023 the numbers rose again. Construction, real estate and parts of retail came under pressure from higher interest rates, weaker demand and more cautious investment. During 2025, Arbetsförmedlingen's monthly figures show continued activity, but the picture varies between industries and regions, and numbers can be revised over time.

How often does a layoff notice end in dismissal?

Not every layoff notice ends in dismissal. That is an important starting point. Employers can redeploy staff, change their plans, reduce the scope or find other solutions before any dismissals are carried out.

Arbetsförmedlingen's follow-up of layoff notices between September 2023 and May 2024 shows that 61 percent were dismissed within six months. The same follow-up shows that 24 percent were registered as unemployed at some point during the period, and that just over one in ten was still unemployed after six months.

Two things are true at the same time. A layoff notice should be taken seriously. But it is not the same as a long unemployment spell being a foregone conclusion. For many people the outcome depends on how quickly they act, what internal alternatives exist and how strong demand is for their particular role.

Industries and regions

Layoff notices rarely fall evenly across the economy. The pattern shifts over time and varies between counties.

Construction and real estate have been particularly sensitive to the higher interest-rate environment. Lower new-build activity and more cautious investment have hit construction firms, subcontractors and adjacent services directly.

Retail and parts of consumer-facing services react quickly when households tighten their belts. Notices can come earlier here than in more long-running project businesses.

Manufacturing and export-oriented businesses are influenced more by international demand, energy, logistics and trade policy. In some regions, a single large employer can have a very large impact on the overall picture.

That is why the most important number for you as an individual is rarely the national headline. It is the situation in your industry, in your region and in roles close to your own competence.

What happens after a layoff notice?

Once a notice is filed, a process begins. It is not a final outcome.

First Arbetsförmedlingen and the union are informed. Then follow the usual MBL negotiations under Swedish co-determination rules, where the employer must negotiate before any dismissals can be carried out.

If dismissals are still considered necessary, questions of last-in-first-out order, redeployment and possible exemptions become important. For some employees, support through Sweden's transition organisations is activated at the same time.

For you as an individual, this stage is decisive. You need to understand the timeline, document what applies to you specifically and start acting before uncertainty becomes a vacuum.

Your rights when a notice is filed

A layoff notice in itself does not take away your rights. On the contrary, several rules become more important right now.

LAS and notice period

If you are later dismissed, the Employment Protection Act (LAS) and your employment contract or collective agreement apply. You normally have the right to a notice period and continue to receive your salary and benefits during that time.

Seniority order and exemptions

The main rule is last in, first out within the same operating unit and bargaining area, unless a collective agreement or specific exemption says otherwise. That is why it pays to understand early on how the employer is reasoning about roles, functions and redeployment.

Transition support

If your workplace has a collective agreement, you may be entitled to support from organisations such as TRR, TSL, Trygghetsstiftelsen or KOM-KL depending on the sector. That support can include coaching, advice, training subsidies and help with finding the next job.

Unemployment insurance (a-kassa)

If you do become unemployed and meet the conditions, you may be entitled to compensation from a Swedish unemployment insurance fund (a-kassa). Do not wait to read up on the rules. It is easier to act calmly now than once a dismissal is already a fact.

Getting past the first stage in recruitment systems (ATS)

If you start applying for jobs straight after a layoff notice, you often compete with many others doing the same thing. A generic CV will rarely do the trick.

Recruitment systems, often called ATS, are used to receive and manage applications. The features vary, but many employers use filters, keywords, screening questions and standardised flows that push unclear CVs out of the process early.

That does not mean you should write strangely or exaggerate. It means you need to be clear, use the right concepts when they genuinely match your experience, and make it easy for both software and people to understand what you can do.

How to improve your odds of moving on

• Use a simple, single-column structure with clear headings.
• Avoid tables, decorative elements and images inside the CV text.
• Mirror the wording in the ad when it genuinely matches your experience.
• Show responsibilities and results concretely, with numbers where possible.
• Export to a format that is easy to read and to forward.

Five steps for the first week

You do not have to solve everything at once. Start by establishing control. The next step gets easier when you know which jobs you actually want to apply for and your material is already usable.

A layoff notice creates uncertainty, but it does not have to create passivity. People who understand the process early, secure their rights and start moving before the situation hardens usually come out stronger, whether the notice is withdrawn or leads on to the next job.